Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast : a risk-based decision-making game
Arnal, L. ; Ramos, M.H. ; Coughlan, E. ; Cloke, H.L. ; Stephens, E. ; Wetterhall, F. ; Andel, S-J, van ; Pappenberger, F.
Type de document
Communication scientifique avec actes
Affiliation de l'auteur
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF READING GBR ; IRSTEA ANTONY UR HBAN FRA ; RED CROSS/RED CRESCENT CLIMATE CENTRE THE HAGUE NLD ; DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF READING GBR ; DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF READING GBR ; ECMWF EUROPEAN CENTRE OF MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS GBR ; UNESCO-IHE INSTITUTE FOR WATER EDUCATION DELFT NLD ; ECMWF EUROPEAN CENTRE OF MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS GBR
Résumé / Abstract
Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”, will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.
Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 18, 1 p.
EGU General Assembly 2016, 17/04/2016 - 22/04/2016, Vienna, AUT